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The stock market is showing incredible internal strength.  It was weak and has now strengthened.  Usually when the stock market has been weak but then improves, the economy itself (and home prices and the consumer) then becomes temporarily weaker as stocks rise up off of their bottom.  That is happening now: stronger stocks, weaker economy; the two do not move in tandem.

And then there is Trump.

President Trump naturally spent the weekend threatening high tariffs again and he (temporarily) followed through on Monday with attacks on some of our closest allies (and the Dow stock index is down over 600 points as I type this today).  Frankly, I just wish that he would concentrate on his golf game; he certainly doesn’t understand how tariffs or the economy work.  Volatility, with drawdowns, is the result in the near-term… but it won’t last; the stronger stock market will eventually win.

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” just passed and is now signed into law… and please don’t shoot the messenger:  The rich get lower taxes and more loopholes; the poor get higher taxes and higher food & health care costs and more hurdles to jump.  Hungry poor children lose their school lunch assistance.  Hospitals and clean energy suffer under the new bill.  Trump gets endless money to build prison camps for legal naturalized citizens and illegal migrant workers, not just in the Everglades of Florida, but his stated plan is to build them all across the country.  Social Security itself was weakened by the bill since the tax cut for some seniors comes directly out of the Social Security system’s coffers… but if you work after qualifying for Social Security, and if you earn too much, you are penalized.   Of course, the deficit quickly goes up by another $3.3-Trillion; the United States is now $37-Trillion in DEBT.  

-$37,000,000,000,000

We may get some near term (tariff caused) economic weakness & turbulence plus continued weakness in home prices and consumer spending… with weakness ending in the late Fall of this year?  Below is a weekend quote from President Trump.  I don’t know about you, but I can’t figure it out.  I do know that when push comes to shove (if the stock market suddenly drops), Trump will cave in on tariffs, continuing the TACO trade.  Please remember that tariffs are NOT paid by the foreign country… they are ultimately paid by YOU in the form of higher prices.  And we have to remember that tariffs haven’t really happened yet… July 9th is the deadline… or is it August 1st?  (Quote courtesy of Fortune via Yahoo News):

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Tariffs impact stock sectors differently, with the below sectors on the left being the safest in a “tariff world.”  REITs and financials (banks) and gold & crypto would also be on the left.  MarketCycle’s client accounts are strongly leaning toward the (green) left on this chart (Chart courtesy of Apollo Global):

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Everything that is needed for the stock market to run higher is now in place since corporations no longer need to worry about regulations or any damage to our environment.  And the super-bull market will now broaden out and pick up speed and, in my opinion, it will eventually go parabolic for longer than people would currently believe possible.

We are in the final few years, the strongest years, of a 20-year secular stock bull that started 16.5 years ago.  The current period will mimic 1997 to 2000, where Internet stocks went sky high and generated outstanding profits.

And the bear market that always follows at the end of all 20-year secular bull periods is a real killer.  The last example was the Dot.com Crash in 2000 which was followed by 10 years of weakness (and the crash was copied again in the Financial Crash of 2008).  If I am right, the coming crash at the end of this decade may totally reset both politics and the economy (and maybe the U.S. even just defaults on its debt or we allow the Federal Reserve to “buy” all of our debt and permanently hide it in their non-audited books?)… a chance to start over, including a new gold backed digital currency since the U.S. owns most of the world’s physical gold; a chance to do things differently and better.  Crisis leads to opportunity.

During the next few years, it will be innovative technology and particularly AI & robotics and crypto & blockchain (and inflation assets) that will lead the way to great profits.  By 2028 the stock market may be moving parabolically higher and this might even cause people to (dangerously) take out second mortgages on their homes and to borrow money from brokerage houses in order to toss the money at the stock market.

There will be some bumps along the road, perhaps a temporary larger pullback in 2027, but investors just need to hang on until the very end.  My job is to spot the end times and then to switch gears AT THE RIGHT TIME in order to profit from the destined big bear market that will then be due.

Technology is fairly immune to tariffs and interest rates and inflation.  Technology has been leading the market higher, BUT it is still in the early stages of its ascent.  Innovative technology, just now at the middle of its “S” curve cycle, is likely to be a particularly strong asset during the coming few years.  AI and robotics technology are both extremely important, as are the smaller utilities that run AI data centers and the big banks and private credit companies that fund the new technology startups.  Effective July 1st of this year, the market is suddenly broadening out while the USDollar is less strong, which means that we now have an opportunity to successfully buy innovative & disruptive technology in all cap-sizes and from all countries, including Japan and Asia.

Interestingly and hard to believe (and fact checked) Amazon literally just created its millionth robot (imagine, Amazon now has 1,000,000 factory robots!).  Meta has just hired a giant “who’s who” list of AI builders.  It’s happening, so one might want to buy into the stock market and just hold on!  (Chart courtesy of TechCrunch)

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I personally believe that the need to create an intelligence is built into our DNA and, as a sort of “manifest destiny,” it cannot be stopped.  So, going forward the BIG story will be artificial intelligence (and robotics).  The rush into AI will likely push the stock market to unbelievable heights over the next few years.  AI & robotics will be a key factor during the remainder of our lives (and beyond), no matter how the stock market reacts to the AI & robotics trade in later years.  I now use AI every day of my life. 

This important chart below shows the potential of what may be THE great technology super-bull that is still in its early stages.  My bet is that the “AI trade” goes parabolic for a profitable and prolonged period.  Going forward, every time that someone on Wall Street declares that we are in an AI technology bubble and that we should “watch out,” just laugh and ignore them… they have no clue as to how big a bubble can become.  In my opinion, this AI bull will be big.

The current wave may prove to be the big one… we’d currently be just about where the question mark is.  (Chart courtesy of Benedict Evans, a technology expert based out of London):

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In general, MarketCycle’s client accounts hold the following positions (there may be some accounts that are too small to hold all positions and custodial trusts for minors and corporate accounts cannot hold any “esoteric” positions):

1. Gold bullion
2. Private credit funding for technology companies (half floating-rate & half fixed-rate, 100% secured, paying 7% interest)
3. Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (our bitcoin ETF pays 28% interest without cutting into profit gains and MicroStrategy is cornering the market in Bitcoin)
4. Managed futures (long-short global interest rates, global currencies and commodities, but does not hold stocks… a great diversifier and a big help during inflationary periods)
5. Developed market growth stocks (growth = strong)
6. Small-cap momentum (momentum = trending strong)
7. Mid-cap momentum (cap = size of the corporation)
8. Large-cap momentum
9. U.S. Technology sector
10. Global innovative technology
11. Global artificial intelligence
12. Global robotics
13. U.S. large-cap banks (they fund new IPOs and mergers)
14. U.S. small-cap to mid-cap utilities (they supply energy to AI data centers)

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That’s it, thanks for reading!

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MarketCycle Wealth Management, for a low fee, manages brokerage accounts for the general public… in the United States and globally.  There is a contact tab at the top of our main website.  We strive to earn our keep.

Our REPORT site can be reached via the connecting link on our website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  ROTATION  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  —  DUAL MOMENTUM  — HEDGE FUNDS

Clients may take it for granted that I am bullish during a bull market.  I mean, what else would I be?  I sometimes quote my (famous) investor acquaintance, Ed Seykota, by saying:  “It is not logical to be bearish in a bull market.”

Well, most investors are still illogically bearish, and this includes professionals and major institutions and even the paid analysts that so many investors depend on.

When one “shorts” the market, they are betting, with their hard-earned money, that the market is going to fall sharply.  Right now, we have the biggest hedge fund ETF short position in the history of the universe.  This makes me very bullish because most people are always wrong… when sentiment is too bearish, it is a very bullish signal.

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And we currently have the most money, in the history of the universe, still sitting on the sidelines, waiting & wanting to move into the markets but too afraid to make the move, although it will.  This makes me long term bullish since much of the $7,250,000,000,000 will slowly enter the market over the next few years.

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Currently, most investors are still selling into any rallies (see the red area at the far-right bottom).  This makes me very bullish.

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But when the stock market drops 18% and then (“V” shaped) recovers as quickly as it just did, then the market tends to just keep moving higher (see the green vertical lines as compared to the S&P-500 over the past 55 years).  This makes me very bullish longer term.

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Currently, there are 34% more home sellers in the United States than there are home buyers.  This will lower home prices, which will lower inflation (because 55% of inflation is being caused by high home prices), which will allow the Federal Reserve to finally be able to lower interest rates, which will be extremely stimulative for the entire stock market, including the very undervalued small-cap stocks.  Lower yields would also offer lower rates on new home mortgages, so that stimulation would put somewhat of a floor under home price losses with, perhaps, strengthening home prices showing up again sometime in 2026.

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SUMMARY:  I’m watching provisions in Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and how it affects U.S. investments by U.S. citizens and by overseas investors; I’ve probably read more about the bill than have most members of Congress.  There is certain to be a battle getting approval for the bill because Trump’s program would increase the U.S. deficit by a whopping $5.8-Trillion (which defeats any legitimate purpose of DOGE… which is now to continue under the leadership of Peter Thiel).

The economy (and housing) is starting to weaken.  Stocks lead the economy… stocks were weak, but they are steadily getting stronger.  And now it is the lagging economy’s turn to weaken as stocks now get stronger.  It is likely that six months from now, in the late Fall, both stocks and the economy will be strong at the same time and remain strong for an extended period.

So, I remain bullish.  I am still bullish on U.S. stocks but have also added Developed Market stocks to our mix (such as Euro area, Northern Europe, UK and Japan).  The USDollar, despite its recent weakness, is still within the walls of its bullish trend channel, but I still also hold gold bullion which is “anti-dollar.”  Artificial intelligence and innovative-disruption stocks will lead the way higher over the next few years.  Big banks will gradually be funding new (IPO) Initial Public Offerings of innovative new baby companies, and both will profit.  Growth stocks will continue to beat value stocks over the next few years, until they fall out of grace in the 2030’s.  Of course, we will continue to get zig-zagging (often Trump caused) volatility and occasional downdrafts.

And we will eventually get the big bear market that is always promised at the end of ALL secular bull market cycles (as in the technology based Dot.com bust in 2000), and that will offer additional profits because it will finally be the correct time to “short” the market.  Again, a “short” is a bet that markets will drop.  But at that “end-times” event, we will be the rare short holder and most of the market participants will be euphorically bullish and buying on every dip, as the market drops (and drops and drops) over a, perhaps, two year period.  But that is not now and it is not soon.

Although everyone else is highly negative, I’m so (patiently) bullish that I’m almost giddy!

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Thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of watching over the investments in your brokerage account.  The entire process is easy.  We try hard to earn our keep. 

The REPORT website can be visited via the connecting link on the main website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  MOMENTUM  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  —  HEDGE FUNDs

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My last few blogs have been long, so as the pendulum swings, this one will be somewhat shorter.

We are in a secular stock BULL market that started in the Spring of 2009.  Historically, they last for around 20 years.  Secular stock market cycles are long cycles that determine the prolonged strength or the weakness of the markets.  When we are in a secular stock BULL market, the bullish periods will be exceptionally strong and the bearish periods will be less significant.  This current secular BULL cycle likely ends in the Fall of 2028 or the Spring of 2029… I’ll know when we get closer to the end.

We are also in a concurrent and overlapping cyclical stock BULL market that also likely runs until the Fall of 2028 or the Spring of 2029.  Cyclical stock BULL markets run for around 6 years and this one started in the Fall of 2022, at the bottom of the 2022 bear market.

20-year secular bull cycles usually contain three 6-year cyclical bull market cycles plus two bear markets.

The two cycles, secular and cyclical, may end together in late 2028 and both would move in unison into a combined secular AND cyclical bear market which, if history proves to repeat yet again, the combined bearishness could end in a monster bear market crash.  Perhaps the worst in history.

Crashes can be more rapidly profitable than can be any bull market.  I made most of my personal money by shorting the entirety of the crashes of 2000 and 2008.

But right now, a super-strong and unstoppable bull market continues higher; I expect the final couple of years of this bull market to be parabolically strong with a market emphasis on artificial intelligence, robotics and innovative technology… sort of a super-copycat of the late 1990’s Dot.com technology bubble.  If I am correct, people will be obtaining margin loans and mortgaging their house to get hold of extra money to invest in the stock market; a dangerous pursuit because these same people will get themselves trapped in the eventual bear market.

What will cause the next giant bear market?  Massive U.S. government debt (Trump and the Republican Congress members are well into the process of passing a gigantic debt increase, mostly for tax savings for the top 5% and for military weapons, via Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”  This follows Biden’s out-of-control spending habits).

A headline from today’s CNBC financial website:

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So, how will we fund our debt?  It is normally done via the U.S. selling Treasury bonds.  But now, nobody wants to own U.S. Treasuries.  I am writing this article on May 21st and today’s Treasury Auction was a complete dud and the stock market, that was flat, dropped 800 points on the Dow within minutes of the auction.  Treasury bonds are essentially loans given to the U.S. government.  Right now, nobody wants to loan the U.S. government any money.  Most of MarketCycle’s client accounts own NO Treasuries.  So, to fund our rapidly growing debt/deficit, the U.S. will “print money” and buy its own debt via a “not talked about” Quantitative Easing process… which will work… until it doesn’t.

This process of “printing money” to buy our own debt, coupled with Trump’s tariffs (which are entirely paid for by U.S. corporations and U.S. consumers) will create high inflation.  High inflation makes the cost of servicing the debt rise and rise and rise to eventual unpayable levels.  Specifically, this is what will cause the coming debt-ridden bear market.  Unpayable debt and inflation that would be impossible to stop without the Federal Reserve raising interest rates beyond 20%.  Yes, that is what I believe.  I saw rates go to 19% in 1981.  My first home mortgage was at 16%… and I was too dumb (and unstoppable) to understand that 16% is problematic.

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Right now things are good in the markets; where should we invest?  Below is what the market itself is telling us to hold (and this is primarily where MarketCycle’s client accounts are positioned, although I am not suggesting that you should do the same):  innovative technology, mega-cap technology, financials (large banks), consumer services and small to mid-cap utilities.  Momentum stock ETFs would hold primarily those sectors just mentioned, and particular momentum ETFs are often winners (but some are poorly designed).  We should also add “crypto” into the mix.  REITs may not do as well as during past bull markets.  Industrials should (eventually) get stronger again as the new administration in the White House backs further away from their destructive tariffs.  At the end of this final super-bull market, energy will also get strong, just as it did during the Dot.com bubble bull market.

Invest in assets that generate outsized profits (Chart courtesy of Datatrek):

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Artificial intelligence, which offers humans astounding benefits along with accompanying terrifying consequences, will soon be the big (big!) money maker and its profit potential will continue to be under-estimated.  My opinion is that the creation of artificial intelligence is unstoppable… sort of a modern “manifest destiny.”  (Chart courtesy of Morgan Stanley.)

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Certain “momentum” ETFs are often a good method for catching the best assets during the best times, although they have to be watched carefully during downturns.  MarketCycle always holds a minimum of 25% momentum stocks in our portfolios.  (Chart courtesy of Alpha Architect.):

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That’s it… thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of managing your money through the market cycles.  There is a contact tab on our website, but I can be reached via:

StephenAust@MarketCycleWealthManagement.com

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MARKET CYCLE  — DUAL MOMENTUM  — TREND FOLLOWING  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  — HEDGE FUNDS

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In my first incarnation, when I was in practice and steadily seeing patients, I would do an exam and then give a report of my findings, attempting to make sense out of the presenting chaos & confusion, backing up everything that I reported with proof.  It was the “proof” that allowed patients to understand that I knew what I was doing and to trust me.  And it is proof that I am constantly searching for as I attempt to make sense out of the current market chaos & confusion.

[There is a PDF & print function at the bottom of this blog, on the website.]

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The stock market hates one thing and one thing only:  chaos & confusion

For better or worse, we suddenly live in a world of chaos & confusion, all created by the daily changing whims of one man that wants to ‘dictate’ even the tiniest detail.

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This first chart shows the global level of economic chaos & confusion.  (Chart courtesy of the conservative Bloomberg Economic Research)

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This next chart below comes from the highly respected conservative publication, The Economist.  This is the #1 publication used by hedge funds in their decision making.  The chart shows President Trump’s approval rating on the economy.  I have gone for the past two decades without being the least bit political in my writings, but now politics is the thing that I have to deal with on a daily basis.  My first thought upon awakening each morning is:  “What bad thing happened while I was sleeping?”

The first three months; Trump’s approval rating on the economy.  (Chart via The Economist):

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Let’s first look at what the market environment would be like if things were normal.

Earnings are good.  Jobs are good.  Taxes are low.  The Fed wants to be accommodative.  Inflation is low (although now rising again because of tariffs).  Margin has not been called in and margin is still being used at surprisingly low levels.  Markets are very oversold on a daily and weekly basis.  New lows on the NYA are now bullish.  The VIX is now giving a bullish signal.  MarketCycle’s proprietary “short-term-buy” indicators have now triggered “bullish.”  We are still in a secular bull market and despite the recent hit (explained below) the United States is still the powerhouse of the globe.

We were due for a stock market pullback because of overbought conditions and we got that right on cue in February and early March of this year.  The (S&P-500) stock market was correcting and then bottoming perfectly at 5500, and the pullback was over and done with.

But then:  Donald Trump spoke in early April… and the world came unglued and it fell apart. 

Surprisingly, 90% of Trump voters do not have brokerage accounts, so they have not yet been hurt by Trump’s actions.  Only 10% have brokerage accounts, although they are giant portfolios, and these people have easy access to him, even if they have to buy it.

Immediately after “Liberation Day,” the market began to fall.  A better name may be “Obliteration Day” because $10-Trillion was wiped out in the global stock market in just 2 days.  This is what $10-Trillion looks like:  $10,000,000,000,000.  That’s a lot of digits.  Almost nobody imagined the ridiculously high level of tariffs that would be rolled out… IE, 47% on Vietnam.  This massive two-day drop was caused by fear, but also because the entire world, which mostly owns U.S. stocks, immediately SOLD all of their U.S. assets, bonds and stocks and currencies… and they moved everything back home.

Trump’s tariffs = U.S. down and everyone else up.  It is like telling everyone to take their money out of the U.S. and to just leave.  The entire planet is angry at the entire United States.  A friend that recently flew to the U.S. from Europe, on a normally crowded airplane, was the only person on the plane.  Nobody wants to come here.  Visitors are now being stopped and even detained at the airport.

U.S. exceptionalism in the markets ended in an instant, with one proclamation.  Nobody wanted to own our stocks, so they fell sharply.  Nobody wanted our bonds (which means that nobody wanted to loan us money) so they fell sharply.  Nobody wanted to hold the U.S. Dollar, so it fell sharply.  Normally if bonds go down then the Dollar goes up, but not this time because both fell in unison.  This is a unique and temporary phenomenon, it won’t last, but it was strong initially and it indicates that nobody on the planet currently wants to deal with this new and profound chaos & confusion.

So, after “Liberation Day,” U.S. markets went down and almost crashed… but Trump flinched, as I knew he would, and he backed off of his doomsday plan.  He has now seen that breaking things simply for the sake of breaking things is often a mistake.  My wish is that he will somehow remember that he almost crashed the markets.  He seems to anchor to certain beliefs and then he tries desperately to confirm his beliefs rather than challenging them.  That is a big mistake and we are the ones that would have to pay the price.  We’ll literally pay the price because Trump’s tariffs and Trump’s need to force lower interest rates would result in sky high prices for every single thing that we all ‘consume.’  If implemented, these high tariffs would literally be the biggest tax hike in history and it would be placed almost entirely on the shoulders of hard-working Americans, rather than on the rich.  Tariffs are a regressive tax.

But somehow I hold the opinion that Trump will back off even further and we’ll all be saved from obliteration.  He’ll find some way to “save face” by saying that he “won” and that he got “great things never seen before” out of his “art of the deal.”  And then he’ll take credit for the stock market jumping higher again.  If he backs off and only sets tariffs at a general 10% level, and if he doesn’t find a way to fire Jerome Powell from heading the Federal Reserve, then the stock market may immediately leap higher and investors will have to be already invested in the markets in order to receive that profit.

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So, back to the real world, minus any crazy stuff coming out of the White House.

In the short term, the S&P-500, as a proxy for the markets in general, is attempting to bottom and then move higher.  It just needs to get above the dashed green lines on this chart to suggest that the bull market has resumed. 

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The S&P-500 might still want to retest the 4800-ish area once more.  A retest wouldn’t be the end of the world since approximately 50% of all corrections normally include a retest.  Again, a “retest” means that the correction low is (approximately) hit twice, in a “W” shape, rather than the bottom being “V” shaped.  If a retest occurs, then the Fed might lower interest rates at their (Wednesday) May 7th meeting in two weeks, especially with inflation decreasing in the latest CPI & PPI reports, and this could have the effect of rocketing markets higher again.  If there is no attempted retest of 4800, then the Fed would have no reason to lower interest rates in May and they would likely wait until June.

Worst case scenario, if we get a “Trump Tariff Recession,” and I do not currently expect to see this, then the S&P-500 might want to very temporarily move down to 4500 before then rapidly moving higher.  This also wouldn’t be the end of the world and we would still have a chance to recover back toward 6000 by the end of this year, especially with the Federal Reserve then actively and aggressively lowering interest rates, which is very stimulative for the economy.

We are getting much closer to the end of this market correction.  We are in a normal correction that happens once every couple of years, but still within the confines of a SECULAR BULL MARKET THAT LIKELY WON’T END FOR ANOTHER 3.5 YEARS.

The market could go higher from here, or it could retest the April lows before then going higher.  The market is down today as I post this blog (faintly yellow vertical highlighted line to right) because Trump spent the Easter weekend droning on and on about trying to find a way to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which he legally cannot do even though he is the one that originally put Powell in as Fed Chairman.  Actually, Trump is setting up the sales-pitch that any further downside will be caused by Powell’s reluctance to lower interest rates (in the face of low but now increasing inflation).

Note, there is a chance that the S&P-500 holds at the 5100 level.

Short term technical analysis… chart posted at 10:30 AM EST on April 21st, 2025:

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That big two day drop shown above (and red dot, far right below) when viewed through the lens of history, reveals that a big downward drop like we recently experienced has always led to giant bull market gains.  (Chart courtesy of Bespoke)

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And the (S&P-500) pullback to 4800 touched the exact bottom of the intermediate term (arithmetic) bullish trend channel before bouncing higher again.  (I originally drew this red dashed line back in 2022 which was 2.5 years ago.)

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And we remain well within the boundaries of the secular trend channel, which is very bullish longer term.  I still believe that we will follow the purple dashed line higher…  and I still expect this bull market to go to astronomical levels before it ultimately ends in a debt-fueled inflationary crash several years from now.  My goal is to make any crash highly profitable for MarketCycle’s clients.  We made a fortune during the giant bear markets of 2000 and again in 2008.  Crashes can be much more profitable than bull markets.

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Regardless, in the very long term, and despite any bear markets and crashes, stocks go up and up and up and up.  Over the very long term, owning stocks is a no-lose proposition.  The dark blue line shows the past 200-year profit line for anyone owning the U.S. stock market.

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Currently, investor sentiment is so fearful that it is now extremely bullish.  Extreme fear indicates that everyone has already sold and only buyers are left.  (Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Research)

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The stock market (blue line) will eventually follow the bullish “smart investors” (green line) who are now actively buying stocks.  (Chart courtesy of Jim Paulsen)

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It is highly unusual that interest rates (green line) would move higher while the USDollar (blue line) is falling.  This indicates that foreigners are already tired of Trump’s chaos & confusion and they are taking their money and going home.  (Chart courtesy of Standard Chartered Research)

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Foreign ownership of U.S. bonds and stocks has plummeted and the U.S. was temporarily damaged by this.  (Chart courtesy of DataStream)

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The money that has been removed from the United States has moved to other countries.  MarketCycle also moved some U.S. funds in client accounts to other developed market countries and held in the Euro.  (Chart courtesy of Goldman Sachs)

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And a lot of money has moved into gold.  MarketCycle’s highest allocated individual asset has been gold for several years now.  Most advisories and institutions and hedge funds do not hold gold, and I don’t understand why.  I made a 1000% gain via 2x gold from 2001 to 2011 before selling and waiting for the next gold bull market which MarketCycle caught with perfect execution.  In my opinion, gold will reach incredibly high levels by the late 2030’s… I mean REALLY high levels.  MarketCycle’s client accounts own actual gold bullion safely held in the vaults of the Royal Canadian Mint, where we get tremendous tax savings if we ever sell and we can take physical possession of the gold during an emergency.

Central Banks, such as the Federal Reserve, must know something because they are hoarding physical gold at an almost parabolic pace. (Chart courtesy of Yardeni Research)

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SUMMARY:  MarketCycle is still bullish.  The market has likely bottomed, barring any incredibly dumb proclamations by our leader.  Most of us have grown tired of the chaos & confusion, but the market is becoming numb to the noise and the market will soon ignore it and move higher, likely at the same time that Trump also grows tired of all of this.  

Strength is being found in smaller utilities and momentum consumer staples; both are defensive sectors and are mostly non-tariff.  Healthcare stocks are showing some strength, but not as much as the Wall Street hype would suggest.  Crypto is showing renewed strength and it broke above overhead resistance just this morning.  Private credit is still strong.  Big bank stocks are not affected by tariffs and they are showing strong relative strength.  Small and mid-cap innovative technology is showing renewed strength and they are less affected by tariffs.  Big tech is not yet showing outsized strength, but when they do, they are likely to really pop higher.  Gold just keeps getting stronger and it is way up today.  As mentioned above, developed market stocks now are showing strength and going forward, investment accounts may want to hold as much as 15% in developed market stocks held in Euros (EUR), particularly in a developed-market-growth ETF.  United States stocks will still rule supreme over the longer term, regardless of what I wrote above.  We have to remember that getting above the two green dashed lines on the short-term chart (above) is of the utmost importance for the continuation of the bull market.

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So, the Report of Findings:  The patient has a minor injury that will “self-heal.”

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“You will remember these troubles as no more than waters that have flowed by during the night.”    Job 11:16

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Thanks for reading!

MarketCycle is in the business of managing your investment account.  We try hard to earn our keep.  The process is easy.  There is a contact tab at the top of our website; it costs nothing to talk.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  —  HEDGE FUNDS  —  

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It’s a brave new world and I’ve been fiddling around with using artificial intelligence programs.  When ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence, was asked to explain what a market correction is… this is the answer that it gave (but I had to fix its grammar):

MARKET CORRECTIONS PREVENT MARKET BUBBLES

• When stock prices rise too quickly, they can become detached from fundamentals (earnings, revenue, economic conditions).
• Corrections help to deflate excessive speculation before it turns into a full-blown bubble and subsequent crash.

THEY SHAKE OUT WEAK HANDS

• Corrections often drive out short-term speculators who may have entered the market for quick gains.
• This allows long-term investors to buy quality stocks at better prices.

THEY PROVIDE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES

• Many investors view corrections as a chance to buy fundamentally strong stocks at a discount.
• For long-term investors, buying during downturns can improve portfolio returns over time.

THEY HELP RESTORE MARKET BALANCE

• Stock prices can become overextended due to investor optimism or momentum-driven trading.
• Corrections help reset valuations closer to fair value.

THEY ARE A NATURAL PART OF MARKET CYCLES

• Historically, the stock market experiences a correction of 10-19% roughly once every 12-18 months.
• While they may feel unsettling, they are expected; corrections do not necessarily indicate a prolonged bear market.
• Corrections play a crucial role in maintaining a healthy, functioning market.

THEY REINFORCE INVESTMENT DISCIPLINE

• Investors who stay disciplined during corrections (rather than panic selling) often see long-term gains.
• Corrections serve as a reminder to maintain a diversified portfolio and to stick to a well thought out plan.
• Long-term investors who stay focused on fundamentals, rather than short-term price movements, are usually rewarded over time.

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I’d like to personally thank ChatGPT for that since s/he somehow seems to be alive.  And I’d like to close with this chart that shows the pullback frequency that we should learn to expect throughout our entire investing life… and yet the stock market still has a distinct & strong upward bias. (Chart courtesy of NDR Research):

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How does the stock market respond AFTER the correction bottom?  This final chart shows the historical percent of profits 3, 6 and 12 months after the correction bottom; complete recovery of all losses within two months (or less) and then ongoing profit gains over the next 10+ months.  (Chart courtesy of LPL Research):

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That’s it… thanks for reading!  Sorry, but no correction details this month as we are reserving this information for clients only via our regularly emailed MarketCycle Updates.

MarketCycle manages investor’s portfolios.  The process is easy and affordable.  There is a contact tab at the top of our website.

Our paid subscriber service, The REPORT, can be reached via the link on this website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  HEDGE FUND  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  —  INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

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We currently live in a “Disinformation Bubble.”  People get their false “facts” from false sources and then strongly hold onto them as a sort of anchor.  But anchors are heavy and we are already drowning.

Before I start my rant, I’d like to repeat what I stated in our prior blog: this is not a political rant, it is just a rant.  It is my responsibility to see what is actually, factually, happening in the financial world using minimal prejudice; this is because our clients deserve truth and no less than truth.

For almost two decades now, I have been predicting that the final years of this current decade would evolve into the biggest and most profitable investing BUBBLE in history.  (Now, what follows from here will sound counter intuitive.)  This parabolic stock market would require someone to come along, a President, that would “issue decrees” to deregulate all financial instruments and that would eliminate all of the independent watchdogs that normally stop corporations from committing fraud and even international bribery.  The parabolic bull market that I see coming would require a libertarian type of investor enthusiasm that can only result from literally all restraints being removed from private corporate business.  This predicted scenario was speedily accomplished by President Trump during his first 4 weeks back in power, as his first order of business, and all regulation is now, already, removed from business. 

So, your investment account is now free to go crazy high over the coming few years because nothing can stop unrestrained corporate growth.  Owning stock “shares” gives one the ability to “share” in the profits of these now unrestrained corporations and everyone will make piles of money… until they don’t.  Turns out that there is also an eventual price to pay.  Like a powerful arm throwing a baseball straight up in the air, it’s eventually gonna’ briefly pause and then come back down at an equally fast pace.  Right now, the ball is still going up.

U.S. citizens have literally been promised a new “Golden Age.”  It’s likely that we, instead, get a new “Gilded Age.” 

So, President Trump’s very first order of business was to deregulate (set free) the entire financial and business sectors and to remove fraud protections and to fire fraud and waste watchdogs.  Any Federal employee that investigates financial fraud has been fired.  Already fired.  Any agency that investigates fraud, such as the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, has been totally shut down.  Departments at the FBI that investigate financial fraud have all been closed down.  Non-political Inspectors General at all sections of the government that investigate for fraud and waste have ALL been fired.  IRS tax collection employees, the ones that look for fraud, have been fired with many more on the way to being fired.  The lead person in charge of stopping the giving and taking of international financial bribes, a Republican, was fired.  On February 18th, President Trump issued an Executive Order taking powers away from the independent Federal Reserve in controlling bank holdings and he put the control solely under Trump’s own command; this isn’t legal, but that no longer matters.  On February 19th, he issued an Executive Order that allows him to personally control the consumer-protective functions of The Commodities Futures Trading Commission, The Federal Housing Financial Board and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC).  Importantly, he is also lowering corporate tax levels which can only further increase corporate profits (and the investing shareholder’s profits).  This has all taken place in a span of only 4 weeks.  And yes, this has all been fact-checked and no, I’m not a “liberal”… I manage investment accounts from a neutral stance and again, I MUST understand what is actually, factually going on in the financial world with as few biases as possible. 

Folks, what I do know is that:

1. It is easy to break things, and things are already breaking.
2. For the next few years, it may be party time in corporate (and investing) America… but this ultimately isn’t going to end well for most investors (or for a “U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund”).

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As I stated in my prior blog, to understand financial bubbles and the deregulation and fraud that helps to create them, I would suggest that everyone watch the movie (extremely well done and with a star-studded cast):  The Big Short 

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Financial deregulation always leads to hidden fraud & hidden danger and a profitable market bubble.  Market bubbles always end in a crash.  Market crashes offer highly discounted assets, but investors are always too fearful to get near them.  Not to sound callus because I’m willing to help anyone that wants help… but for investors, money can be made during the entire process.

Below, the ORANGE line shows roughly where we are today… the BLUE line shows the route of where I currently believe we are headed if we do repeat the Dot.com bubble and subsequent bust.  Of course, the new (orange) AI spike would be projected further to the right on this chart.  So potentially, you are looking at enormous investor profit potential.  (Chart source unknown.)

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If I am correct, we are already in the third and perhaps the last of three giant technology bubbles:

1. The Roaring 1920’s, named after the roaring stock market that was centered around the newly created radio and moving/talking pictures.  This giant technology BUBBLE ended in the Crash of 1929 (actually a slow-motion bear market).  The crash was followed by The Great Depression where many people didn’t know where their next meal was going to come from.  The crash was created by financial deregulation and the firing of watchdogs.  In subsequent years, massive fraud was discovered and regulation was placed back on markets.
2. The Dot.com BUBBLE of the second half of the 1990’s was centered around the creation of the Internet.  During just the final 6 months of 1999, e-commerce internet stocks went up by 400%.  Please note that a simple 100% gain doubles your money.  This Dot.com period was a giant bubble that was created by financial deregulation and the firing of watchdogs.  It ended in the Dot.com (slow motion) crash that lasted for two years.  Again, massive fraud was later discovered and regulation was placed back on markets.
3. And today, and if I am correct:  My prediction is that we have now already entered the beginning stages of the third technology bubble… the AI and Innovative Technology BUBBLE.  We likely have somewhere around 4 years remaining to this parabolic stock bull market that might form into a truly gigantic BUBBLE… before popping into a 1929 or 2000 style slow motion crash.  [I will be watching every single day for impending signs of a coming pop.]  Is there anything that could alter my thesis?  Yes, too high of inflation from Trump’s tariffs and by the deportation of millions of eager, but possibly illegal, workers… AND by the possibility that Trump makes a MAJOR mistake since he so often acts without reasoning out any of the potential negative consequences of his impulsive actions.  I now subscribe to a 2x-daily service that searches for every possible action from the White House or Congress that might affect investments (at $2500 per year).  MarketCycle’s job is to stay on top of this at all times, to be ever-watchful, and to respond appropriately.  Remember that 100% of my own money is invested exactly like my client’s money and that gives me great incentive to stay on top of everything, 24/7.

SUMMARY:  In my opinion and from a purely financial perspective, there will be an incredible, once in a lifetime opportunity to make money during the coming parabolic run-up as well as during the subsequent slow-motion crash.  And at the end, good assets will be offered for 10-cents on the dollar.

Is this good news?  Is it all bad news??  It just is what it is… almost as some sort of strange and fickle Manifest Destiny.  Mark Twain was correct when he said:  “Life is just one damned thing after another.”

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Thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of navigating your investment account through rough waters.  My personal money is fully invested exactly like my clients, which is rare in this industry.  We work hard to earn our keep.  The process is affordable and easy.  There is a contact tab at the top of our website.  I’ve had numerous blog subscribers tell me: “I have been reading your monthly postings for 5 years and now I am finally ready to become a client.”  

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MARKET CYCLE  —  TREND FOLLOWING  — RELATIVE STRENGTH  —  INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

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In this article, we cover:

1. How much longer will this bull market continue, and what happens at the end of the bull?
2. Is government debt a problem?
3. Is inflation going to come back?
4. Did President Biden cause our first spike in inflation?
5. How will President Trump affect the economy and your pocketbook and will he cause a second (and even larger) spike in inflation?
6. How to pay half price for your house and why a mortgage is an investment vehicle that is your best friend.
7. How will President Trump affect investment portfolios?
8. Is crypto currency heading even higher?
9. Is the USDollar in trouble?  Is gold going to the moon?
10. MarketCycle has been generally bullish since April of 2009… are we STILL bullish?
11. “Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia”… why did they pick that word to mean “the fear of long words”?

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I’ve been attempting to write shorter articles, but this one is long; perhaps too long to read on your little phone.  I feel that it is important for clients to read this particular posting; it covers a wide range of topics and yes, it is easy to understand if taken one sentence at a time.  There is a PDF generator and a print function at the bottom of this article, so that you can read it at your leisure (an extra benefit is that if you read it just before bed, it will help to put you into a deep sleep!).  So, printing this out is a good solution and you can just think of it as your “next book to read.”  I put a lot of work into this one; there were a lot of revisions over a period of several weeks; in the final revision, I removed half of the text, believe it or not.  Part of that effort went toward an attempt to not offend anyone; I ended up just offending everyone equally and so, I ask for absolution in advance.

December of 2024 was very weak, with a stock market and bond and commodity drawdown to end the year; not many expected this.  Much of this selling had to do with professional money managers taking profits or booking losses for tax reasons, possibly with the intent of eventually repositioning assets toward the new Trump Presidency policy changes that start on January, 20 2025.  At the time of posting this article at 11:00 AM EST on 01/07/24, the stock market is down in order to back-fill the price chart GAP that occurred yesterday.  Chart gaps are almost always (fairly quickly) back-filled before the market can resume its path higher.  MarketCycle’s system of proprietary indicators suggests that a stronger January is possible.

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What is a “market cycle” and where are we in the cycle?  The stock market cycle has a fairly repetitive pattern that Wall Street calls a “market cycle.”  The profitable bullish period of a market cycle climbs ever higher for a 5-6 year period and then it falls into a bearish period that lasts for 1-2 years.  The complete market cycle is usually 6 to 8 years in total.  We tend to get three multi-year stock bull market cycles in a row over a longer secular period; we are currently in the third and final of those three cyclical stock bull markets.  This third cyclical bull market is usually the strongest one.  At the very end of this current bull market, we will get the normal prolonged bear market, but this may still be about 4-5 years from now, so it is too early to worry.  Both the up and the down portions of the market cycle, the entire market cycle, can be profitable with the simple switching of a few portfolio assets every few years.

Throughout history, the cyclical pattern, as shown above, has repeated over and over and over again.  During each market cycle, investors seem completely surprised by the process.  The trick is in knowing when to switch the assets within one’s portfolio based on the stages of the market cycle, and then to be patient.  This is why “MarketCycle” was created.

The current market cycle began its rising bullish period in October of 2022 and the new bull market was confirmed in October of 2023.  If you count out 6 or 5 years from the start, it indicates that the current bull market is scheduled to come to an abrupt halt sometime in the Fall of 2028 or possibly in 2029.  Of course, this date could change because on January 20th we will begin an experiment in the abrupt and pervasive alteration of the normal workings of the U.S. economy.  Details of this experiment are outlined further down below.  There is still a good chance that the remaining 4 years of this current (technology centered) stock bull market will be SUPER-STRONG…  a new “Roaring 20’s.”

This next chart shows what happened during the last period that was similar to today, 1995 to 2000.  Like now, it was the third cyclical bull of three and it was technology-sector centered, like today.  I do not know if we get a copycat version of this prior market between today and late-2028 or 2029, but it is quite probable and with the relative strength behind artificial intelligence (AI) and Crypto, it contains the workings of being even stronger… as long as our “fearless leaders” don’t muck up the gears of both the markets and of the economy.

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BELOW:  The economic cycle itself (BLUE) always lags the stock market cycle (ORANGE).  This means that stocks will react to what is about to happen even before it shows up in the economy.  In investing, you have to learn to make your move BEFORE any economic confirmation lets you know that your bet was correct.  This takes decades of experience and a lot of patience.  The image also shows that stocks and the economy are not the same things, simply because they are so totally out of synch with each other. 

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From Moody’s Analytics, U.S. stock & bond rating agency, via CNBC:

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What is “inflation” and is it coming back again, only worse?  I believe that MarketCycle was the very first to predict the recent spike in inflation, before anyone else saw it coming.  We wrote about it in 2020, but the Fed didn’t see any inflation until March of 2022.  Inflation was directly caused by massive money printing, all as a response to Covid.  Trump/Pence initiated $2-Trillion in “relief” checks and Biden/Harris initiated another $2-Trillion.  Biden liked the idea so much that he tried to put his name on the project.  Every dog & cat in the country received an assistance check.  I have a doctor friend whose income went way up during Covid and yet he received a “free” check for $1.5-Million in the mail.  Since Covid didn’t kill the economy and there was no economic hole to fill (no USDollar destruction), the massive extra money printing instead increased the U.S. debt by a truly gigantic amount and it caused a mountain of inflation.  

MarketCycle, besides being the first to call the recent inflation spike, also called the peak of the spike correctly, almost to the day, and we said that the drop in inflation would be gradual and then stall at around 3%, and it has.  This wasn’t all that difficult to predict.  How could both Presidents and their advisors, and the entire U.S. Treasury, and the powerful Federal Reserve NOT have known that if there is no economic hole to fill, then any extra printed money causes a mountain of inflationary debt.  It is difficult to fathom how so many analysts can be sitting at these major institutions with none of them holding an understanding of the basics of finance.  If there is no hole, then there is nothing for you to fill; if there is no money destruction, then you don’t need to replenish it.

This chart shows the amount of debt added just during the past two President’s terms:  Trump’s first term followed by Biden’s only term.  The nation’s debt almost doubled in 8 years.

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And this chart shows the government’s rapidly rising interest payments on the above debt.  This is directly tied in with excessive spending and money printing.  Can you imagine if this were the way that you ran your home or your business?  What would the end result be?

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Inflation under Biden/Harris?  November 2022 CNBC snippet, two years ago:  While the stock market remains profitable, the economy and the consumer are harmed by inflation spikes.  Investment account profits generally help to hedge the direct consumer losses caused by higher prices on everything that we buy… another reason to reallocate savings toward investment accounts, and this will become even more important as time passes.  Buy stocks, not stuff.

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How will President Trump affect the economy and your investments starting in 2025?  I have written that the inflation spike that we just lived through is going to repeat again towards the end of the current super-bull.  Originally, I didn’t know how or by whom the second spike would be caused, but I knew that it was coming.  And then President Trump was re-elected.  It is estimated that Trump’s policies, even with any DOGE cuts, will quickly add another $8-Trillion to the U.S. deficit, and this amount alone would rapidly increase the debt by another 25%. 

In my opinion, initially we will experience a two-year battle between Trump’s many deflationary policies and his much stronger inflationary policies.*  Interest rates will continue to move lower in 2025 and perhaps in 2026, but by 2027 we are likely to see rising inflation once again starting to gain a foothold.  Ultimately and at the end of this bull, high inflation & high interest rates may be what finally chokes off this current stock bull market.  But that is not now, and it is not soon.

*     And it may be a bit more complicated than just deflationary and inflationary policies waging a battle.  The following brilliant comment about “the dog finally caught the car, and now what?” was extracted from a late December Fox News article.  The words of Jonah Goldberg, a well-known conservative commentator:

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Trump’s DEFLATIONARY policies:

1. Deregulation of corporations is mostly deflationary.
2. Reduction in government spending is deflationary, although it will be VERY difficult to find legitimate things to cut that won’t harm either people or the environment.  Eliminating the proposed $2-Trillion from the nation’s debt level may take ten years to accomplish rather than one, and it is likely to cause palpable pain.
3. Trump’s immediate halt to Biden’s push for forgiveness on already existing student loans will save $550-Billion, and this savings is also deflationary.  Other areas discussed by Democrats and shot down by Trump:  It would cost $3.5-Trillion+ per year to give “free Medicare and drugs for all”… so it turns out that it isn’t actually free.  And “free college for all” would cost only $70-Billion per year, a low enough cost that the figure actually surprised me.  The cost differences probably mean that we are more often sick than we are smart.  Yes, these are good intentions, but it turns out that the government actually must also have the ability to pay for the “free” things that it gives away or the entire economy will eventually implode.
4. Increased energy production is deflationary (although the U.S. is already producing oil and natural gas at record levels).  Commodities are finite.  Peak oil production and extraction occurs sometime during the next 15 years and then it is all rapidly downhill for carbon-based energy use, so it is unfortunate that clean energy and EV’s are about to be chopped off at the roots (to wither on the vine) since they would take about 15 years to ramp up.
5. Productivity boom from robotics and artificial intelligence is deflationary in a major way.

Trump’s INFLATIONARY policies:

1. Deporting millions of (illegal or migrating) workers out of the country, especially at a time when the U.S. basically has full employment, will result in increased food production costs, increased industrial & building costs and increased “consumer services” costs, etc.  This will prove to be very inflationary.
2. Tariffs can be highly inflationary.  The idea is that tariffs slowly force manufacturing to return back to the United States, however, we likely have only 4-5 years to accomplish the mission before the next (big) recessionary bear market takes over the economy, so it’s unlikely to actually happen except on a small scale.  President Trump’s tariffs will be paid by U.S. importers (not by the foreign exporter) who will then pass the entirety of these costs on to the U.S. consumer.  Trump has promised 25-60% tariffs “on day one” and he would be hard pressed to go against this oft repeated campaign promise.  He recently stated that the Tariff Executive Order was already written and ready for his signature.  That item that you want to buy on Amazon, the one that was made in China and that cost $100 today, may soon cost you $160.  The salad that you eat may soon cost twice the price.  The car part that you need, the one that was made in Mexico, may soon go from $400 to $500.  That $10000 bundle of lumber that you need, the one from Canada, may soon cost you $12500.  Your new Ford truck, the one that you need for work, may go from $40,000 to $50,000 overnight.  As inflation builds, the costs will only float higher.  Inflation feeds on itself.  Again, tariffs are highly inflationary.
3. Constant and continual money printing to pay for President Trump’s oft repeated campaign promises:  A massive round-up & deportation process (estimated cost at $600-Billion, but likely much, much higher than this)… or to pay for building giant detention centers (estimated cost at $175-Billion)… or to pay the astronomical costs associated with building “The Wall” (just in Texas, it will take 30 years and cost $22-Billion to build)… or to subsidize corporations (and oligarchs like Elon Musk) in general… or buying Greenland, relatively cheap at an estimated $1.2-Trillion (the Greenland government  actually told us to “F**k off “), a project which the President-elect recently called:  “An absolute necessity”… or to cover the cost of $10-Trillion in tax cuts where 40% goes to people earning more than $732,000 per year while Americans earning less than that would receive only $1300 in tax savings (more than offset by big tariff costs).  Americans earning less than $50,000 per year get nothing, but they will still have to pay much higher prices on almost everything that they buy, via tariffs.  And President Trump’s oft repeated “concept” of eliminating all income taxes and replacing them with tariffs is just plain silly-talk.  Honest, I’m not suggesting a political bias in saying any of the above since I am “offending everyone equally.”  I am just pointing out that, if implemented, these new policies would all require constant & continual & non-stop money printing and that this is the very definition of “the cause of high inflation.”  Our debt will eventually harm us and both Biden’s free-hand spending and the costly planned programs proposed by Trump will both combine to do the job… of eventually doing major damage to the U.S. currency and to the U.S. economy and ultimately to the people of the United States.

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From the highly respected (and very expensive!) Ned Davis Research… tariffs and deportations ultimately will give us both weaker growth and stronger inflation, a double whammy:

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Snippet extracted from FactCheck.org:

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Recent thought provoking headline from CNBC:

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During this coming second inflation spike, certain assets will continue to run up into a profitable market bubble; not all assets will join in, but artificial intelligence, automation and innovative technology assets are likely to bullishly bubble up since they will be fairly immune to inflation.  They will likely not join in with the “renewed growth of inflation” thesis because, at their heart, they are all deflation causing assets.  I say this because during all prior inflationary periods, technology excelled as an investment asset.

On December 18th, 2024, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the following to the Press (about Trump’s proposed tariffs) and he ended up causing the Dow stock index to fall 1200 points in a span of less than two hours.  He understands how inflationary Trump’s policies and tariffs might be.  One can tell by the confused speech pattern that he is being boxed into a corner; he already knows that inflation may eventually get beyond his control.  To gain control of inflation this second time around, the Fed may even be forced to orchestrate a recession at the end of this decade just as Paul Volker did during the early 1980’s big inflation spike (that occurred via massive money printing to pay for the Vietnam War).  And even that may not permanently work this time around because we may inherit stagflation during the 2030’s decade.

Jerome Powell:

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January 2026 news story:  From The Onion about the recently proposed defunding of National Public Radio that was suggested by the GOP:

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CLIENT ACCOUNTS and THE MARKET:

MarketCycle was forced to make some recent portfolio changes because of the multi-faceted Trump regime plans & policies and the fact that it will all cause the Fed to lower interest rates less than previously expected.  In fact, actual interest rates (as set by the Fed) may even jump around a bit in the future rather than following a clearly defined up-or-down trend.  Higher inflation and more chaotic interest rates require an alteration in portfolios.

A summary of what the 100 biggest institutions and most respected analysts are PREDICTING for 2025, and yes, this took me many hours of searching and reading to assemble below as 9 simple bullet points. 

1. All relative strength is with the United States.
2. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks start to excel as the market begins to broaden out.
3. Interest rates move lower in 2025, but they move less than was previously expected.
4. Inflation is going to eventually come back to haunt us.
5. USDollar (USD) gyrates sideways.
6. Hold gold over commodities.  Hold stocks over bonds.  Hold cyclical stocks over defensives.
7. AI and crypto lead the markets higher for longer.
8. Best intermediate-term sectors:  technology, financials, industrials, REITs, utilities.
9. Many of them predict that we will hit an air-pocket in 2025, perhaps in the second half of the year, that brings a very temporary 10% pullback… that quickly recovers… and it should be used as a buying (adding money) opportunity.

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MarketCycle bought a small amount of crypto (Bitcoin and Ethereum) for client accounts a couple of years ago when it was below $15,000 per Bitcoin.  It is now at roughly $100,000 and we will see it go much higher. It is not safe for us to hold a large allocation to crypto, no matter how enthusiastic one is, because crypto is just way too volatile for a larger positioning within an investment account.  Effective as of late-November, there are now two ETFs that brilliantly move to protection when crypto-currencies start to experience a price drawdown, so they will likely prove to be substantially less volatile while having the ability to lock in profits (with no tax consequence).  So…

Considering that it is just a bunch of computer digits, Bitcoin is a scarce ‘thing.’  The scarcity somehow gives it value.  3.7-million individual Bitcoins have already been permanently lost.  One grown man in the USA lost $181-Million when his mom cleaned his room and tossed out the trash on his desk, including the drive that held his Bitcoin wallet… another guy in the UK lost $527-Million when his mom did the exact same thing… and in Norway, you guessed it, mom struck again to the tune of $500-Million.  There must be a moral hidden in this somewhere?  Maybe move out if you are 35 and a multi-millionaire?  Perhaps, don’t make your mom clean your room?

I do believe that President Trump will, as promised, attempt to sell some of the country’s gold in order to buy actual Bitcoin for the new Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.  In my opinion, this is an extremely dangerous idea because of Bitcoin’s inherent volatility (in both directions), but it is an idea that will likely keep driving the price of Bitcoin higher because of a continuous supply of “buy the dips.”

Our 8% position in actual physical gold (held for us in the secure vaults of the Royal Canadian Mint) is still on a tear higher… very profitable.  Our allocation is a high one; most professional advisors and hedge funds hold a 0% allocation to gold… they “don’t believe in it” and they call it “a relic of the past.”  Gold is very much less volatile than is Bitcoin.  In my opinion, gold will eventually prove to be much more important than is Bitcoin because it is not volatile (it is a more stable storage of money) and because it offers powerful protection against the future debasement of the USDollar via the non-stop money printing.  Gold cannot be ‘printed’ into existence (or created by a computer programmer).  

Gold?  I subscribe to the (cheap @ $90) newsletter that the much-respected Dr. Jim Paulson puts out each week, Paulson’s Perspectives.  It is available via Substack.  Being retired but still holding a wealth of knowledge coupled with a hefty dose of humility, Paulson is finally able to let loose in his publicly released analysis.  He gives somewhat generalized advice and makes no asset suggestions.  He gave me permission to share the following…

This short snippet was taken from his recent 12/09/2024 posting:

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I’m suddenly ultra-cautious about US Treasury-bonds, especially since they do not perform well in an inflationary regime, and inflation is our future environment.  After 40 years of holding them, this was a difficult thing for me to let go of.  We now live in a world where Treasury-bonds have almost no buyers of consequence and this will prove to be an increasingly inflation causing problem going forward.  Can anyone picture China or Canada or Mexico or Europe or Russia continuing to buy US Treasury debt?  I can’t.  Who would want to buy US Treasuries (loan the US money) when the US government moves toward protectionism, routinely seizes the assets of other countries and continues to grow gigantic deficits.  Bonds have already entered into a 15-year secular bear market.  They may now get a bounce in the near-term, but a drop longer-term.

Awhile back, in order to get in early, MarketCycle bought some diversified, innovative artificial intelligence and robotics stocks and we recently added an equal amount via a particular dedicated AI & robotics ETF.  Like crypto currencies, these are also showing great strength now that the U.S. Presidential election is decided.  Technology stocks in general, despite having an occasional weak day, are showing great strength in their market internals.

In client accounts, MarketCycle is currently positioning client portfolios toward artificial intelligence via:

1. Small utilities that supply energy to artificial intelligence (AI) facilities
2. REIT (giant warehouse) facilities that are dedicated for AI data storage
3. Large AI chip makers
4. Small AI software companies
5. Technology sector momentum stocks
6. Multi-cap momentum positioning (which will increasingly pick up on AI stocks)

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Regionally, all relative strength is still with the United States and I expect it to remain there for another 5-ish years, at which point Asia will likely take over leadership within the context of a generally weakened and stagflationary global economy (stagnant economy with high inflation… not a good combination).  The US is currently the generator of the majority of innovative technology ideas.  Europe is still generally economically weak.  China is still a mess.

I found this visual chart to be interesting; it compares the United States to the European Union countries:

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Growth (strong) stocks, and momentum stocks, are now clearly beating value (underpriced) stocks and I also expect this to continue.  The exception would be in financial sector stocks, which are currently value stocks that took over leadership when Trump was re-elected (because of his proposed deregulation of banks and corporations).  We have to remember that it was bank deregulation that actually caused the Crash of 1929 AND the Crash of 1987 AND the Technology Crash of 2000 AND the Financial Crash of 2008.  The only thing that we got each time was rampant fraud and too high leverage.  We never learn. 

To meld in with the theme of deregulation, the SEC has recently approved the two riskiest ETFs in the history of the universe, and I promise you that they will eventually blow up:  MSTX and MSTU

The conservative publication, The Wall Street Journal, is reporting that President Trump is, behind the scenes, talking about actively working to eliminate the government’s FDIC bank insurance that protects your savings and checking account, but that he plans to keep the SPIC brokerage account insurance intact.

Financial deregulation combined with inflation will likely cause the already crazy high credit card interest rates to soar to ridiculous loan shark levels in a relatively short period of time.  20%-30% now, but eventually a 70% (adjustable rate) interest payment on credit cards by 2030 on those with even the highest credit rating?  Believe it or not, this seems probable to me.

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I’ve watched The Big Short movie at least a dozen times and it is also one of my wife’s favorites.  She teaches dance & movement & exercise classes (NIA) for a living, so if she likes it, it must be very entertaining and well done.  The Big Short clearly shows the results of bank (and general financial) deregulation.

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There are currently so many potentially ultra-bullish assets to invest in that MarketCycle is highly diversified. With Trump coming into office in January, a broader spectrum of stocks might become ultra-strong, particularly small-cap and mid-cap sized stocks.

Some assets such as crypto, managed futures, gold, bonds, REITs, utilities and even select long-short hedge fund type ETFs all can help to protect some during bear markets.  MarketCycle’s client accounts hold all of these assets. 

Managed futures, crypto, gold and silver, tech stocks, plus home ownership*… can also help to counter inflation.  Owning silver in an investment account is inferior to owning gold because it is much more volatile and it offers less protection during stock downturns.  

*     When buying a home during a prolonged, secular inflationary regime, it is critical that one gets a (I currently suggest a 15-year fixed rate) mortgage rather than paying cash.  A mortgage is your friend, it is an investment vehicle; it doesn’t cost you money, it makes you money.  If you buy a $500,000 home with cash, you have a $500,000 home.  If you buy a $500,000 home with a fixed-rate mortgage, the BANK essentially buys your house for you, because with a mortgage…

• You still get the $500,000 home, but you are paying for it with future inflated money and taking tax write-offs on the interest payments in most countries (if the mortgage is under $750,000 in the U.S.).  So with a fixed-rate mortgage, you are essentially buying the $500,000 home for somewhere around half price, and perhaps less than that.  The higher the inflation, the stronger this concept.
• The mortgage tax write-offs may kick you into a lower tax bracket, an added big bonus.
• BUT the home is going up in price because of inflation, so you are perhaps buying a $500,000 home that is eventually worth $1-Million, but you are paying perhaps a $250,000 equivalent for it slowly OVER TIME.
• AND the money that you might have (upfront) paid cash for the home with is earning MUCH MORE in an investment account… and the account profits can help to pay off the mortgage with money to spare.
• SO, you get the house cheap (and inflating in price), plus you get the investment account profits, plus you get the tax write-off, when you lock in a fixed-rate mortgage on your home purchase.  YOU GET ALL THREE.  Inflation sometimes has a good side.
• Fixed-rate mortgages may reach their lowest interest rate level by mid-2026.  Lower in late-2025; lowest in mid-2026(?).

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I’ve added a new sign over my desk and it is really the underlying message in this blog posting:

“All roads lead to inflation!”

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Inflation favors investors and harms spenders; inflation transfers money to people with investment accounts. 

What does it mean: “All roads lead to inflation”?

• The USDollar (USD) is not backed by anything at all other than the U.S. just saying that it has a good currency; it officially stopped being backed by gold in 1971, but we have had the ability to print money at will since 1933… and we have printed.  Since 1933 the USD has lost 97% of its value (slow motion inflation).
• If you print money (or borrow money from overseas that is exchanged into USD), you increase the total amount of USD in existence.
• If you increase the total amount of USD in existence, then each USD is worth less because they are less scarce.
• If each USD is worth less, then it will take more of them to purchase a service or an item than it would have taken prior to the money printing.
• If everything costs more, then this is inflation… prices are inflated.
• Seeing prices moving steadily higher results in panic buying on a large scale and this leads to scarcity and a further increase in inflation.
• Salaries cannot keep up with the higher prices, so the consumer is eventually crushed.
• Inflation makes things eventually cost so much that it breaks the back of the economy, which then crashes.
• The crash destroys money and resets the economy, but at a great expense that some countries have a terrible difficulty recovering from.  In Germany, before World War II, their currency was so devalued by money printing and debt (to pay for World War I reparations) that people were actually burning their paper money instead of buying firewood because their paper money was worth less than was a stack of wood.  This is ultimately what led to Adolph Hitler’s rise to power… his promise that he alone could fix everything and bring Germany “back to greatness.”
• So, unless you are printing money to make up for an equal amount of money that was destroyed during a financial crash (as in the Financial Crash of 2008), then you are ultimately creating destructive inflation, which then leads to a new financial crash.
• “All roads lead to inflation.”

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I am a patient bull in a clearly bullish environment that currently contains just ‘average’ risk and with a stock market that may become quite strong and perhaps even parabolic at the end. 

I am constantly watching measurable risk levels.  When in a strong stock bull market, we don’t want to be jumping in and out of the market because that creates actual losses.  When the stock market drops, one still owns the same number of shares, so any “loss” is not real if it is not realized by selling the position.  We want to buy low and sell high, not the reverse.  We want to eventually sell into enthusiasm, not panic.  We actually want to buy during panic, not sell during panic.

And of course, people panic over even the smallest of market drops and they want to run away when they should want to run towards.  We should not listen to our internal fear & panic because it is not clear-headed.  And we should often do the opposite of what the noisy crowd is doing; they are almost always wrong.

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From the original Star Wars movie, a motivational quote from Darth Vader:

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I stated in MarketCycle’s prior blog that there is one thing that the market hates and that is “uncertainty.”  We may get more than a bit of that during the remainder of this super-bull because there is the definite potential for periodic disturbances in The Force, so we’ll be ever watchful.  We might even get one temporary 10% correction during 2025, which would be a buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity.  Every day we have to say to ourselves:  “Is this ‘new thing’ just temporary & passing and is it more of a mental & emotional threat rather than an actual event… or is it something that actually changes markets and our current thesis?”  Most things are just temporary and passing; something that we have to ride out but ignore.  And we have to remember that stocks and the economy are NOT the same things… they don’t even cycle in unison, as per the image that we started this article with and that is reproduced again below.

This technology centered stock bull market might be one for the record books.  There are reasons to be excited!

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PLEASE EMAIL THIS FREE BLOG TO YOUR FRIENDS along with a brief note.  I’ve never asked any reader of this free blog to literally help to spread the word.  I don’t have to do any of this; I do it as a service to others.  I don’t advertise or actively promote myself and I currently live as a hermit of sorts, so frankly, I rely on others to spread MarketCycle’s message.  My primary goal is to help as many people as I can to prosper and to thrive through the coming changes that I clearly see heading our way.  And because of MarketCycle’s incredibly sophisticated trading platform, additional clients in no way detract from the attention needed by current clients.  In addition, any client that contacts me knows that I always reply within minutes and I follow through immediately.  I’ve tried hard to set everything up to be a win-win-win scenario for all involved.

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Thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of navigating your investment account through the expected future that is outlined above.  There is a contact tab at the top of our website.  It is an incredibly easy process.

Our weekly updated REPORT site can be reached via the connecting link on this website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  MOMENTUM  —  TREND FOLLOWING  — HEDGE FUND

MarketCycle Wealth Management

 

170,000,000 U.S. citizens did not vote in the recent election; that is 50% of the country.  Roughly 25% voted for Harris and 25% voted for Trump.  I was concerned about the conclusion of the U.S. election possibly being dragged out.  200 lawsuits were filed even before Election Day, but the election did not drag out.  Several ballot boxes were fire-bombed and bomb threats were called in around the country, but it could have been worse.  Hedge Funds were very heavily hedged and in protection mode.  When the winner was same-day announced, the market instantly calmed down and jumped up to new record highs.  The market truly hates only one thing and that is “uncertainty.”  And so it goes.

Starting in January, President Trump is going to do a lot of things very quickly, perhaps signing 100 Executive Orders during his first week in office and immediately starting to implement his promised government, retirement, judicial, environmental, educational and social altering changes.  President Trump repeatedly told us what he will do and there has even been a 900-page book written about it that shows the “4-Pillars” and the “10-Key-Proposals.”  Again, the only thing that the market cares about is “uncertainty” and all of this has literally been put into print.  And if what I am saying sounds biased, please trust me, I am taking a neutral stance and looking at everything from a central point… I am attempting to see only facts.

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Trump’s financial/business actions and results:

1. Lower corporate taxes plus drastically reduced oversight and regulation (rules) will allow corporations to generate very high profits and this will drive the stock market higher and higher for the next 4 years.  Further impetus created by AI and robotics will offer additional corporate profits via productivity increases (think “Elon Musk”).
2. Trade tariffs (as high as 60% on China and 25% on Mexico) will be paid by the American consumer, not by the country that has the tariff imposed on it, and this will eventually cause high inflation in the U.S. (and there is not enough time to move production to the United States).
3. Deportation of 11-million workers will also cause eventual inflation in the United States.  The taxpayer cost alone will be $88-billion per year and it is estimated to take 10 years.  And your groceries, for instance, may double or triple in price.  That garage that you want to build may easily cost $200,000 rather than the current $100,000.
4. A parabolic stock market plus corporate deregulation comingled with eventual high inflation levels (inflation arrives closer to the end of this current bull market) will combine to cause the economy to eventually crash and burn, but as I stated, this crash and burn is likely to be 4-5 years away.  Every major stock market crash in history has been caused by this three-prong combination.  (Both inflation and crashes can be exploitable & rapidly profitable and I am willing to help anyone through this coming abyss.)  I reserve the right to be wrong, but I am fairly certain about what I’m saying.

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One financial asset that may be about to go to the moon over the next two years (because of item #1 above) is small-cap stocks.

Back in 2022, I wrote that gold had completed what is called a “cup-and-handle” chart formation.  Most readers yawned.  This is an extremely bullish chart pattern, mostly because, when technical traders see it, they get very bullish and they start buying and then keep buying.  MarketCycle has a large gold bullion position, held in the vaults of the Canadian Mint.  Gold has moved up $1000 per ounce since I posted that “cup-and-handle” article just two years ago!

During the first week of November, post-election, small-cap stocks finally completed their own “cup-and-handle” chart pattern and immediately executed a one week leap higher.  This means that millions of other traders have also now seen it.  This particular chart pattern might send the Russell-2000 small-cap stock index (as shown below via the ETF of IWM) up towards (or past) 300 within a two year period.  Unless something side-tracks it, this would be an extremely profitable move.  Small-cap stocks are one area where “stock picking” or “ETF picking” is of critical importance… a correctly chosen small-cap ETF could run up much higher than does the general Russell-2000 small-cap stock index.  (The following chart was originally created in November of 2023 and posted here on November 11, 2024, one year later… it was amazing how the stock market slowly followed and filled MarketCycle’s pre-drawn markings.)

IWM as representative of the Russell-2000 small-cap stock index:

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That’s it, we’re bullish on the stock market, and thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of navigating YOUR investment account through rough waters.  The process is simple and we work hard to earn our keep.

Our REPORT daily site can be reached via the connecting link on this website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  MOMENTUM  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  RELATIVE STRENGTH  — HEDGE FUNDS

 

This posting is going out just as many millions of anxious Americans head to the polls today to vote.  “There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.”

The Wall Street Journal:

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The President of the United States, or his/her political party, does not and cannot control the multi-year bullish PRIMARY TREND direction of the stock market.  Negative geo-political news events always turn out to be mere (temporary) speed bumps along the way; they can slow, but they cannot stop.  The primary trend of the market is like a powerful freight train that refuses to fully stop until it reaches its destination.  By its very self-generated power, it eventually moves everything and everyone out of its path.  A bullish primary trend, like we have currently, normally lasts for 6 years and the most recent one started in the Fall of 2023, just one year ago.  So, do the math.

A bull market tends to go up regardless of the controlling party or what actions those in control might take.  Stocks are naturally biased toward the upside.  Stocks are not politics and they are not the economy and they are not one’s emotions or opinions.  Owning stock shares in your investment account gives you a ‘share’ in the profits of corporations.  If corporate earnings are going up or if they are expected to go up, then stock share prices go up.  Yes, it is that simple, and U.S. corporations do especially well with generating profits and passing those profits on to their investment partners, their ‘share’-holders… and this means YOU.

This chart shows from the year 1900 to today; it also shows why stocks are much less dangerous than many investors believe because the market has an obvious upward bias over very long stretches of time… sometimes sideways, mostly up.  [Chart courtesy of Ritholtz]

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Another view of the same thing.  [Chart courtesy of Charlie Bilello]

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But the stock market does hate uncertainty; the chaos around the 2024 election has caused stocks to move higher at a slower pace, but they have moved higher.  Likewise, the chaos of a negative Presidency might also slow the pace, but not the direction of the bull.  After the election winner is officially announced, which in a worst-case scenario could take weeks, stocks will move higher again (see the red line to the right of the vertical dashed line).  [Chart courtesy of Goldman Sachs]

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We are in a self-directed, double-strength stock bull market: concurrent cyclical and secular bulls.  Overlapping secular bull cycles last for approximately 18 total years and this one started in the Fall of 2011.  Again, do the math.  In my opinion, while no President or political party can derail the direction of a bullish stock market, they may be able to somewhat alter the strength of the market, at least initially.  But a bull market eventually acclimates to literally anything & everything and it just keeps moving forward without actually getting derailed.  So, I remain very bullish for the coming 4-5 years:  earnings are great, the Federal Reserve and most Central Banks are very stimulative, low current margin use levels, consumers still flush with spending money and $7,000,000,000,000 (just in the United States) sitting on the sidelines waiting to come back into the markets… and that is all very powerful fuel to keep the bull market chugging along.

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Please remember to vote today.  DEMOCRACY = VOTING = DEMOCRACY

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Thanks for reading!

MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of navigating your investment account through rough waters.  It’s easy to do and we always attempt to earn our keep.  There is a ‘contact tab’ on our website.

Our paid member REPORT website, with in-depth weekly updates, can be reached via a link on (this) our main website.

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MARKET CYCLE  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  SECTOR ROTATION  — FACTOR INVESTING  — HEDGE FUNDS