Complimentary MarketCycle Wealth REPORT


This month, we will show the daily thinking process that we go through at MarketCycle Wealth Management and at MarketCycle Wealth REPORT (link below).  Every single evening I start from scratch to determine if our asset positioning is still correct.  I write these findings down and then share (in a short, rapid fire format) with members of our REPORT website.  The daily signals that are shown below are based on solid, objective, quantitative analysis and not on opinions or emotions or news events.  It all looks simple enough, but under the “Risk” section below, for example, a single 5 word line might have taken 5 years of research and testing to accurately develop.  Our exceptionally clear market signals seldom change since they are designed to be long term in nature, but that is the way that it should be because that is the most profitable time-frame.  The longer term view always gives us the big picture of the market.  Get the BIG idea and all else follows.” 

Why do people need an investment account?  I often say that having a properly invested (and socially responsible) portfolio is like owning your own company where each of your dollars acts like an employee that gleefully generates money for you.  This is a good thing.

So, what follows below is a March 1st copy of our daily MarketCycle Wealth REPORT that we offer to paid subscribers of that website.  The key take-away for readers is that we are still in a bull market as indicated by the “sea of green” below.  MarketCycle Wealth Management has been bullish since April 2, 2009; stocks are still bullish and market and economic strength is currently high.



MarketCycle Wealth  REPORT


March 1, 2018  


If the market continues lower in the near term, the downside target is for the S&P-500 to drop to 2650-2550 (at the purple dashed line) before eventually rising again:



United States stocks:  BULLISH    Best late-stage U.S. positions:  Mid & large-cap quality, growth and momentum, banks, technology, infrastructure, natural resources and healthcare.  Volatility may increase to chronic higher levels as the late-stage continues so low-vol strategies may do well… as long as they hold mostly cyclical stocks.

Developed Market stocks:    BULLISH

Switzerland & Germany stocks:  BULLISH

Japan stocks:  BULLISH-strong

Emerging Market stocks (commodity producers):  BULLISH-strong

China stocks (non-commodity):  BULLISH-strong

India stocks (non-commodity):  BULLISH

Brazil stocks:  BULLISH

Global private equity:  BULLISH


  • SECULAR U.S. stock outlook (effective October 1, 2011):  Bull markets will be stronger than usual
  • SECULAR Emerging Market stock outlook:  Bear markets will be more severe than usual




U.S. Treasury-bond, 30 yearAVOID  (can act as a portfolio hedge)

U.S. Treasury-bond, 10 year:  AVOID

U. S. fixed-rate corporate bonds:  BULLISH-underweight  

U.S. floating-rate assets (and TIPS and Senior Bank-loans):  BULLISH

U.S. high-yield corporate bonds:  BULLISH-underweight

U.S. preferred shares:  BULLISH  (we currently prefer variable rate)

Emerging Market high-yield bonds:  BULLISH


  • SECULAR fixed-rate outlook:  Bear markets will be more severe than usual. 




Gold:  BULLISH-strong (can act as a portfolio hedge)

Oil & energy:  BULLISH-underweight

Industrial metals and materials:  BULLISH-strong

U.S. home price appreciation:  BULLISH


  • SECULAR commodity outlook (effective October 1, 2011):  Commodity bear markets will be more severe than usual 




U.S. Dollar:  BULLISH (weakening)



Emerging Market currencies:  BULLISH

Bitcoin (high risk!)BEARISH




  • Are energy costs HIGH enough to crush the economy?  NO
  • Are energy costs LOW enough to stimulate the economy?  NO
  • Dow Theory (shipping divergence):  BULLISH
  • Transports Advance/Decline Volume Line:  BULLISH
  • Transports Advance/Decline Price Line:  BULLISH
  • High-yield to T-bonds – divergence:  BULLISH
  • High-yield to T-bonds – spread:  BULLISH
  • Stocks to T-bonds – spread:  BULLISH
  • Percent of S&P-500 stocks above-to-below the 200 SMA – divergence:  BULLISH
  • S&P-500 Advance/Decline Volume Line:  BULLISH
  • S&P-500 Advance/Decline Price Line:  BULLISH
  • “Dr. Copper”:  BULLISH
  • “Dr. Lumber”:  BULLISH
  • Direction of 200 Day Moving Average:  BULLISH
  • U.S. interest rate yield-curve “plus 3”:  BULLISH 
  • Elevated volatility trading-range “plus 3”:  BULLISH
  • Leading Economic Indicators:  BULLISH
  • Global (ex-U.S.) Economic Contraction Risk Indicator:  BULLISH
  • Weekly calculated chance of a RECESSION within two months:  <1%
  • ∗∗ Calculated chance of a near-term U.S. stock market CORRECTION (a multi-month 10-20% loss):  AVERAGE 
  • ∗∗ Calculated chance of a near-term U.S. stock market RECESSION (a year-long 20%+ loss):  very LOW  (U.S. recessions usually lead to global recessions, but not vice versa.)
  • ∗∗ Calculated chance of a global DEPRESSION (a multi-year 50%+ loss):  NONE  (Depressions are always global.)



  • Minor OVERSOLD Indicator most recent buy date:  February 15, 2018   
  • Major OVERSOLD Indicator most recent buy date:  February 23, 2016
  • U.S. SECULAR “MY” Ratio (investing demographics):  BULLISH
  • U.S. Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters:  BULLISH
  • U.S. Fed %-Rate to the projected GDP growth forecast:  BULLISH
  • Likely future direction of U.S. interest rates:  UP  
  • Is U.S. unemployment low enough to cause wage inflation?  YES
  • U.S. intermediate-term inflation forecast:  RISING INFLATION
  • U.S. SECULAR inflation or deflation:  LOWFLATION →  INFLATION
  • U.S. CORE inflation level trend:  BULLISH
  • U.S. employment intermediate-term trendBULLISH
  • U.S. manufacturing intermediate-term trend:  BULLISH  
  • U.S. GDP trend:  BULLISH
  • U.S. stock market historical seasonals (updated monthly):  BULLISH




You can    SUBSCRIBE    to this free MONTHLY blog by clicking on the HOME TAB (above) and then signing in on the right hand side of this website… no spam guaranteed!!!!! 

And this is the LINK to the member’s only Daily REPORT website:


Graham & Dodd:  “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.”

Ralph Wagoner:  “The market is like an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction.  The dog’s owner, who ultimately determines the primary direction (trend), is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropolitan Museum.  At any one moment there is no predicting which way the pooch will lurch.  But in the long run, you know he’s heading northeast at an average speed of three miles per hour.  What is astonishing is that almost all of the market players, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog and not the owner.”


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MarketCycle Wealth Management | Stephen Aust
MarketCycle Wealth Management, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a tax professional before implementing any investment strategy.